The article below in the Energy Bulletin makes the comment that “If annual world oil production were reduced from the current 30 billion barrels per year to 25 or less, geological, and “above ground” constraints on production would likely be delayed for many years”
But how many years? If we change our projected use superimposed on the Oil curve below we find that the ‘many years’ is only 28 more than under the IEA assumptions of 2007.
Radical ‘Systems Thinking’ is required focused on our addiction, rather than the symptoms resulting from it.
The Peak Oil Crisis: Oil in the Great Recession
…………….In a deep depression, supply constraints would no longer be a problem. If annual world oil production were reduced from the current 30 billion barrels per year to 25 or less, geological, and “above ground” constraints on production would likely be delayed for many years. Those individuals and institutions who could still afford oil would likely have available all they can use and probably at moderate prices……………
What the global economy would look like under this scenario is another thing altogether. It would obviously be bad, very bad, but the details of the suffering are simply unknowable – there are too many variables.
It appears there are least two possible scenarios that could play out in the months ahead. Either demand holds up to a level at which OPEC can control the situation and we have higher prices, or the Great Recession causes demand for oil to simply melt due to lack of economic activity and declining incomes.
full article at http://www.energybulletin.net/node/48268