Systems Thinking and the Language of Hyberbole

 The language of hyperbole distorts our perception of reality and thwarts our ability to take a systems view of problems. Currently we have oil demand ‘plunging’ etc.

In reality, ‘slashing’ 1.4m barrels on a demand of 80+ million barrels a day is not ‘plunging’ demand and does not significantly alter any time to depletion, around 30 years.

This is not a comment on this article, which is an essential read.

dd

Higher Prices Crucial to Future Supply

By Chris Nelder
Wednesday, December 17th, 2008

Growing evidence of a global recession continues to take a heavy toll on the oil business.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the World Bank are forecasting the first decline in economic growth in 25 years, with a consequent decline in oil demand.

Until recently it seemed to most analysts (including myself) that the red-hot economies of the developing world, particularly China, would more than compensate for the reduced consumption of oil in the US and Europe. A stream of bad news reflecting a sharply slowing global economy now suggests otherwise.

OPEC President Chakib Khelil believes that the global recession could slash 1.4 million barrels per day (mbpd) of demand in the first half of 2009, as China’s economic growth rate fell from 12% to 9% in the third quarter, the slowest pace in five years. China’s steel output in October fell 17% year over year. The country has ceased gasoline imports altogether, and cut its diesel imports in half. Reports of factories closing continue to come out.

http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/opec-oil-prices/797

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