Energy and the UK OBR Fiscal Sustainability Report

The second Fiscal Sustainability Report published by the UK Office of Budget Responsibly appears to make no reference to energy other than to falling North Sea Revenues. Important though this is, it is the statement that productivity will continue to increase at the long run 2%, without justification, that is the critical issue.

Productivity has been, and is, intensely energy dependent and here is significant discussion about the amount of easily won energy moving forward from this point, and the value of the useful net energy it yields; not least within the International Monetary Fund.

Energy use and GDP are historically closely correlated and projections that ignore this are suspect at best and probably meaningless.

This a strategic mistake as it fails to focus the available National creativity on the search for energy and resource intensity reduction in UK economic activity at system level.

At the moment, all efforts are aimed at marginal energy and resource intensity improvements at micro level.

dd

See also Energy, economy and the impending rite of passage

 

Why the military must(n’t) invade our schools

In yesterday’s Telegraph there was an article titled ‘Why the Military must invade our schools’ and whilst this might have a simplistic attraction in the situation we find ourselves in as a society, it fails to address the reality we are now in. Fragmented as society of’ individuals’ in a future where the Common Good must be placed centre stage as the energy and resource intensity of our society, SystemUK, inevitably falls.

Radio and Television programmes abound, Panorama last night for instance, but none recognise this fundamental reality. The Seventies were the beginning of the future we are now in, only with outcomes differed was a result of the exploitation of North Sea Oil. Which we squandered on Business as Usual, creating no reserve for the transition to the future we are in.

As a consequence, neither did we educate for this reality and the common purpose and action this future requires. The ‘Service for the Nation’ required of us all.

We are now in a world of fire-fighting failure demand and looking for End of Pipe solutions to Society’s Failure Demand. Such is the reasoning behind ResPublica’s genuine concern. Failing schools, send in the military to sort out the problems.

But we are all in this together for the Common Good, and whilst it is eminently sensible to encourage military personnel to take up the work mentioned in the article, dealing with the issues in separate boxes does not solve the problems at system level, SystemUK.

We thought resources were plentiful, to squander as we thought fit as individuals, rather than the reality; limited and needing to be marshalled for the Common Good.

In this future we must all be expected to act for the Common Good, bankers included!. This can only be achieved by educating for and implementing, universal and compulsory ‘Service for the Nation’ , not military discipline in a forlorn attempt to contain the Failure Demand created by not doing the right thing right as a Society.

There are difficult times ahead but we must start now if we are to ensure a coherent and competitive society rather than a failing one. There are scenarios out there we do not   need to let happen.

dd

 

The Earth Equation by Jolito Ortizo Padilla ~ my appropriated words

 They say that “Imitation Is The Sincerest Form Of Flattery” and I take Jolito’s appropriation of my words, below, in that vain and with thanks. 

dd

The Earth Equation by Jolito Ortizo Padilla

All around us we are bombarded with messages telling us that we need to change, that the the earth is warming up. The messages are insistent and shrill but diverse, incoherent and all about our symptoms rather than the addiction we suffer: the hugely ineffective use of the resources that our one planet provides.

Clearly the earth as a system is dynamic and complex. Any attempt to describe it quantitatively and accurately is unlikely to lead to any clearer picture of useful action. What we need is a mind model, something that is powerful and evocative enough to provoke the right questions of societies, communities and organizations. Such a conceptual or mind model is the earth equation.

We are told that we are enjoying a “three planet lifestyle”- a lifestyle that consumes so many resources that we need three planets in order to cope. This tells us that what we are doing is not a sustainable state of affairs , but it is not clear what we need to do. 

We have in fact only one planet. If we look at consumption as an equation, the left hand side of the equation in a resource -constrained environment is always fixed at one. The right hand side of the equation is made up of population (P), its consumption of goods and services (C) and the factor that balances the equation -the resource intensity (I).

So at our starting point we have I=P x C x I, or I=I x Ix I. As we move forward from this point , the one planet remains the same, which means that the right hand product always needs to equal one. The only way this can happen in a resourced constrained environment is if the resource intensity is never allowed to be more than I divided by PC. In round terms, on predicted growth scenarios, we will need to reduce resource intensity by a factor of between ten and 100 by the year 2050.

Genichi Taguchi inspirationally made the observation and processes without loss were of perfect quality and, conversely , that less than perfect quality created a loss to society. In terms of this article, that loss results in an increased resource intensity.

We have thought of over the last 20 years or so that we can treat losses in processes and systems as separate. We have looked at quality as a function within an organization , focused on the customer, rather than that which maximizes the value added to society that results from the creation , use and disposal of products and services. Losses in processes and systems can be environmental, social or economic and are best minimized by seeing the goal of resource intensity reduction as a journey of integrated , continual , quality improvement.

These are the drivers of virtuous circle that using an organization’s stakeholders and their combined knowledge and skills, will enable process learning. This will then drive the process in the direction of sustainability. As the process becomes more sustainable , the losses are by definition minimized , reducing the need for appraisal costs and eliminating the costs and risks of internal and most importantly , external failures.

The message is clear: we have to change, but how? Our symptoms are plain for all to see but our addiction, the ineffective deployment of resources to create, use and dispose of the products and services we consume, remain untreated. Our task is simple, if not easy to accomplish, and can be reduced to key questions:
- Is our business model relevant to such future?
- Does our leadership and management enable the liberation of the creativity
required to continually reduce the resource intensity of the goods and 
services we produce , consume and dispose of?

This will need the most massive effort of quality improvement the world has yet seen. The earth equation is immutable , it drives our futures whether we choose to ignore it or not, and e have no option but to enter the future, either by design or negligence.

http://joepads.blogspot.com/2010/12/earth-equation-by-jolito-ortizo-padilla.html

see also The Big Q http://trailblazerbusinessfutures.wordpress.com/2009/12/17/the-bigq-%e2%80%93-leading-for-competitive-advantage-in-the-one-planet-world/

 

The end of ‘conventional’ growth

While it is true that Economic ‘growth as we have known it is over and done with’ as Richard Heinberg states below, it is important to recognise that in the resource constrained future we face, growth is possible within the limitations of the ‘First Law of Sustainability’ – that – goods and services can only grow at the rate at which their ‘Resource Intensity’ can be reduced beyond that needed to balance the ‘One Planet Equation’; see tab above.

Viewing our position this way gives us a clear focus on the actions we must take

• Reduce the resource intensity of non-essential processes to zero – eliminate them
• Work to continually reduce the resource intensity of those essential processes remaining by improving the ‘Quality’ of their creation, use and disposal.

dd

The End of Growth

Posted Nov 12, 2010 by Richard Heinberg

This article is an excerpt from Richard’s new book which has the working title ‘The End of Growth’ and is set for publication in July 2011. Given the urgency and fragility of the global economic crisis, we will be serializing the rough content as Richard writes it. Additionally, Richard will be offering ‘live peeks’ at the events and information that inform his writing process through Facebook and Twitter accounts created expressly for this publication.

The article was originally published as the MuseLetter #222

Introduction: The New Normal

The central assertion of this book is both simple and startling: .

The “growth” we are talking about consists of the expansion of the overall size of the economy (with more people being served and more money changing hands) and of the quantities of energy and material goods flowing through it.

The economic crisis that began in 2007-2008 was both foreseeable and inevitable, and it marks a permanent, fundamental break from past decades—a period during which most economists adopted the unrealistic view that perpetual economic growth is necessary and also possible to achieve. There are now fundamental barriers to ongoing economic expansion, and the world is colliding with those barriers…………

Full article http://www.postcarbon.org/article/178709-the-end-of-growth

 

The Jevons Paradox

 

But there is one aspect of Jevons’s argument—the Jevons Paradox itself—that continues to be considered one of the pioneering insights in ecological economics.8 In chapter 7 of The Coal Question, entitled “Of the Economy of Fuel,” Jevons responded to the common notion that, since “the falling supply of coal will be met by new modes of using it efficiently and economically,” there was no problem of supply, and that, indeed, “the amount of useful work got out of coal may be made to increase manifold, while the amount of coal consumed is stationary or diminishing.” In sharp opposition to this, Jevons contended that increased efficiency in the use of coal as an energy source only generated increased demand for that resource, not decreased demand, as one might expect. This was because improvement in efficiency led to further economic expansion. “It is wholly a confusion of ideas,” he wrote, “to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth. As a rule, new modes of economy will lead to an increase of consumption according to a principle recognised in many parallel instances….The same principles apply, with even greater force and distinctness, to the use of such a general agent as coal. It is the very economy of its use which leads to its extensive consumption.”……………….

The extensive article, worth reading is at  http://www.monthlyreview.org/101101foster-clark-york.php

 

Britain’s energy consumption drops as people try to save money

We are now feeling the effects of following the Oil Curve rather than keeping ahead of it – the wrong way to balance the One Planet Equation

dd

29th October 2010

Over 50% of people are using less energy than they did a year ago in a bid to save money. That’s according to new research that shows as winter sets in and energy consumption is predicted to skyrocket, people are prepared to do whatever it takes to save power- with nearly three quarters of people citing financial hardship as the main reason.

And their efforts should be well rewarded as the research reveals each household could save £250 every year by making some simple energy saving changes.

But it’s not just the little things like installing energy efficient light bulbs and draft excluders that people are now doing, with many considering making big changes to their homes to save money and energy in the long run.

Over a third would now consider a home survey to see if renewable energy could be installed in their property while 40% would pay more to do up their home if it made it more energy-efficient.

Belt-tightening is also affecting what househunters are looking for when buying a house with energy efficiency now high on homeseekers’ wish lists…………………

full article at http://www.easier.com/79612-britain-s-energy-consumption-drops-as-people-try-to-save-money.html

 

Lean Enterprise Institute Webinar Library

LEI Webinar Library

 

LEI webinars are concise, convenient ways to bring you and your team members practical knowledge from leading lean experts. If you’ve got about an hour, an LEI webinar will give you real-life insights into solving the technical and human challenges of sustaining a lean transformation. Webinars include a presentation followed by audience questions.

http://www.lean.org/Events/WebinarHome.cfm

 

Leaders explore systems thinking

Academic, industry and government leaders explore systems thinking

More than 300 guests attended the two-day MIT SDM Conference on Systems Thinking for Contemporary Challenges to hear experts from MIT, industry and government discuss how they use systems thinking to solve some of the world’s most pressing and complex problems.

Sponsored by Global Project Design, Werfen Group/Instrumentation Laboratory, John Deere, Merck, MITRE and United Technologies Research Center (UTRC), the conference addressed Large Complex Systems; Sustainable Systems; Service Systems, and Health Care Systems.

Commissioner George Apostolakis of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) delivered the keynote presentation. He described how the NRC, charged with ensuring that nuclear use is as safe as possible, is implementing a synthesis of Defense in Depth with a Risk-Informed approach based on system thinking. The goal is a safety culture that takes into greater account the psychology of individual behavior.

Mark Jenks, a vice president in Boeing’s 787 program, described the complex process of how the 787 was brought to market; Kevin Otto, founder and president of Robust Systems and Strategy, a research and development consultancy, addressed issues affecting the construction of Net Zero Energy Buildings (NZEBs) that will reduce — rather than enlarge — the atmosphere’s already untenable carbon load………………

full story at http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/systems-thinking-conference.html

Presentations from the conference can be viewed at http://sdm.mit.edu/conf10.

Videos are scheduled to be made available on http://sdm.mit.edu by mid-November.

 

UK fuel poverty doubles in five years

Fuel poverty doubles in five years

The number of households who are in “fuel poverty” has more than doubled in the last five years because of surging energy bills, according to official statistics.

By Harry Wallop, Consumer Affairs Editor, The Telegraph

Published: 12:18PM BST 14 Oct 2010

 

Older people will be forced to turn down their heating this winter if they cannot meet their fuel costs Photo: Alamy

 

With the average British fuel bill climbing to well over £1,000 a year – for many pensioners the largest bill they have to pay all year – a worryingly large number of people are struggling to keep their homes warm.

 

A household is defined as being fuel poor if it has to spend 10 per cent or more of its income on paying to keep the home adequately warm.

 

Full story at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/8063792/Fuel-poverty-doubles-in-five-years.html

 

Civilisation Change – ‘resource intensity’: the future of education

EU to fund ‘resource revolution’, with strings attached

Published: 06 October 2010

 

Brussels will have to come up with stricter conditions in delivering EU funds and citizens will have to make wide – and sometimes difficult – changes to their lifestyles if the EU is serious about accelerating resource efficiency, experts said yesterday (5 October).

Speaking at a panel debate during the Open Days in Brussels, policymakers and industry experts agreed that in order to speed up Europe’s drive to become a more resource-efficient economy, major changes were needed.

Echoing the sentiments of EU Environment Commissioner Janez Potočnik, Polish centre-right MEP Danuta Hübner, chair of the European Parliament’s regional development committee, argued that while good laws exist at both at European and national level, this cannot in itself guarantee the type of changes needed.

‘Civilisational change’ needed

What is required is nothing less than a “civilisational change,” she said, which will on the one hand force EU citizens to change the way they live and consume, and on the other hand demand that EU leaders take a truly long-term focus.

Comprehensive new EU rules for resource efficiency will have to widen their scope beyond the traditional questions of energy use and promote changes in transport, water use, food consumption, building rules and the use of metals, to cite a few examples.

Tie funding to efficiency rules – Commission

Rudolf Niessler, a director in the Commission’s regional policy department, said that regional funds have already “accumulated an enormous stock of projects” to improve resource efficiency, so EU efforts are not starting from scratch.

Nevertheless, there is still a long way to go in “generating the new culture” needed, he said……………

Full story at http://www.euractiv.com/en/specialweek-regions2020/eu-fund-resource-revolution-with-strings-attached-news-498527