Why the military must(n’t) invade our schools

In yesterday’s Telegraph there was an article titled ‘Why the Military must invade our schools’ and whilst this might have a simplistic attraction in the situation we find ourselves in as a society, it fails to address the reality we are now in. Fragmented as society of’ individuals’ in a future where the Common Good must be placed centre stage as the energy and resource intensity of our society, SystemUK, inevitably falls.

Radio and Television programmes abound, Panorama last night for instance, but none recognise this fundamental reality. The Seventies were the beginning of the future we are now in, only with outcomes differed was a result of the exploitation of North Sea Oil. Which we squandered on Business as Usual, creating no reserve for the transition to the future we are in.

As a consequence, neither did we educate for this reality and the common purpose and action this future requires. The ‘Service for the Nation’ required of us all.

We are now in a world of fire-fighting failure demand and looking for End of Pipe solutions to Society’s Failure Demand. Such is the reasoning behind ResPublica’s genuine concern. Failing schools, send in the military to sort out the problems.

But we are all in this together for the Common Good, and whilst it is eminently sensible to encourage military personnel to take up the work mentioned in the article, dealing with the issues in separate boxes does not solve the problems at system level, SystemUK.

We thought resources were plentiful, to squander as we thought fit as individuals, rather than the reality; limited and needing to be marshalled for the Common Good.

In this future we must all be expected to act for the Common Good, bankers included!. This can only be achieved by educating for and implementing, universal and compulsory ‘Service for the Nation’ , not military discipline in a forlorn attempt to contain the Failure Demand created by not doing the right thing right as a Society.

There are difficult times ahead but we must start now if we are to ensure a coherent and competitive society rather than a failing one. There are scenarios out there we do not   need to let happen.

dd

 

The end of Democracy?

In light of the energy debacle caused by the entirely foreseeable result of the selling off of our utilities, readers might like to read my April 2005 piece below. It meshes with my 2007 letter in Professional Engineering Journal,  here.

DD

“Engineers are supposed to be mathematically literate but a simple understanding of compound interest is all that is needed to see that the current predictions of growth are the pipe dreams of economists.

    Take a chess board and put one unit on the first square, 2 on the second and 4 on the third and continue doubling up. The time to each doubling is 70 divided by the rate of growth i.e. 7%/annum is equal to 10 years.

    Add the squares together 1+2+4 = 7 i.e. the sum of all previous doublings is less than the value on the next square – 8

    Oil was first commercially exploited in 1859 and we are now at around 30 billion barrels/year and on the 32nd square. At the present rate of growth, ignoring aviation rates, we will need more oil in the next 20+ years than in the previous 150!

    Even if this amount of oil exists, finding, extracting and applying unknown technologies to turn the poor quality, heavy, and polluted crude we obtain into useable product is clearly not possible on this time scale.

    And that’s without the climate crisis and the fact that we need a fair amount of the remaining oil to create a low carbon economy.

    Now create a Google alert for ‘Oil Supply’ and watch the world unravel.”

Sustainability and the Energy Gap

We live at a time when we will soon see the peak in oil production, this being widely predicted by reliable and independent sources. After, the expected outcomes range from economic meltdown to a rapid and orderly transition to nuclear and renewable sources.

Unfortunately for the developed western economies a number of things will almost inevitably conspire to disadvantage us this century.

• Our democratic system.
• The demographic fact that the WWII bulge of children is now retiring.
• That UK has had over a century of ‘education for industrial and environmental decline’.
• That an ingenuity/innovation gap exists.
• The transition of control in the western companies from engineers to accountants and finally lawyers.
• The continuing reductionist/compliance approach to organisational management.
• Engineering contract optimism on cost and time.
• The planning regime.

These factors have already led to the loss of our manufacturing base (now occurring in the US) and are currently threatening our infrastructure.

Our propensity to educate for industrial and environmental decline for more than a century has led to the situation where there is an insufficient science and engineering base to maintain and extend the infrastructure built up over the 20th century. This is made more critical by the retirement of the post WWII generation, who build up the electrical infrastructure and the nuclear generation capacity.

We are nearly at the mercy, as a society of not being able to support the quality of life that has been created for us by previous generations.

Putting this together we now find ourselves in a critical national position with regard to the ‘energy gap’ just acknowledged by Professor Sir David King. The short political timeframe and the planning regime has led to the deferment of decisions on the mix of energy we need, leaving us at the mercy of foreign sources of energy and reliant on a number of aging nuclear power stations.

We have to make all professionals, especially teachers, aware of the critical need to encourage able students to take up science and engineering, that their own future security and comfort is dependent on it – not that it is just a good idea.

This is the essence of Education for Sustainable Development as it now applies to the UK (Europe and the US) and is central to the delivery of the new UK Sustainable Development Strategy.

This Century, assuming no doomsday, we will enter a more sustainable world, but the western democracies will probably have a far lower quality of life, even lower than a more equitable share of current resources would indicate.

Derek Deighton

Coordinator, North West Engineering Institutions, Sustainability Joint Venture

 

Is Britain is preparing for Peak Oil the only way she knows how:

It has to be asked if the Riots this week have not been a Godsend to the governing elite in allowing them to prepare for the outcomes resulting from the ongoing. but unspoken, reduction in the Energy and Resource Intensity of SystemUK. This comment from Twitter today

Comment: Britain is preparing for Peak Oil the only way she knows how: Calling on the armed forces, and arming the police.

Read more http://bit.ly/mUv4uK

Peter Oborne speaks elequently today of the failings of the ruling elite in government and business http://tgr.ph/pqdVWP and it reminded me of my letter to him at the Daily Mail in July 2008 relating to an article, again about the state of the UK and the military.

DD

Dear Peter

          I am impressed with your article in the Mail today and I copy below part of the email to my MP I copied to you a short while ago.

“I don’t blame a particular person or party but we have a systemic failure of proactive action.

          The society we have created has replaced personal duty with personal freedom to the point that senior service personnel are now pointing out the incongruity of the reward those who are attempting to protect our way of life are receiving, referenced to others

          I want to be wrong, but soon, senior officers will be questioning the ability of our political system to deliver the actions needed to transition society to the low carbon future we will inherit, as I have said, by design or negligence.”

          The concept of political neutrality has been core of our armed services for centuries and British service personnel have been treated abominably on many occasions down these centuries

          It has been clear to me for years that our failure to be proactive and think holistically would lead to the point in history we find ourselves. I copy below my comment from 2002, which predicts the situation in which an outcome such as knife crime could develop. http://bit.ly/pVG3Md

          We are powering into energy oblivion and someone will need to take action, and Senior Officers must be aware that their ability to maintain a strategic and tactical capability will be seriously compromised by the time the new carriers and JSF are due to come into service

          This from the current edition of Business Week

“However, it appears that for at least the next five years, and possibly longer, the Saudis are likely to produce less crude than promised, according to fresh data on the kingdom’s oil fields obtained July 9 by BusinessWeek. Saudi officials have said they would increase production capacity to 12.5 million barrels a day next year, from the current 10 million barrels a day, and could even ramp up to as much as 15 million barrels a day if the market demanded it. As proof to a skeptical audience, the normally highly secretive Saudis were a bit more open, escorting journalists on a visit to their new Al Khurais field (BusinessWeek.com, 6/23/08), east of Riyadh, and disclosing some field data.”

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jul2008/db2008079_865368.htm?link_position=link1

Regard

Derek

 

Fears of oil spike if climate pledges fail

 By Javier Blas and Sylvia Pfeifer in London: Published: November 3 2010 22:30

The global energy watchdog will next week throw its weight behind calls for governments to implement pledges to fight climate change and cut fossil fuel subsidies, warning that a failure to do so would significantly inflate oil prices………….

Full article at ……………. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/bc40251a-e787-11df-b5b4-00144feab49a.html#axzz14UeU3QZM

 

Britain’s energy consumption drops as people try to save money

We are now feeling the effects of following the Oil Curve rather than keeping ahead of it – the wrong way to balance the One Planet Equation

dd

29th October 2010

Over 50% of people are using less energy than they did a year ago in a bid to save money. That’s according to new research that shows as winter sets in and energy consumption is predicted to skyrocket, people are prepared to do whatever it takes to save power- with nearly three quarters of people citing financial hardship as the main reason.

And their efforts should be well rewarded as the research reveals each household could save £250 every year by making some simple energy saving changes.

But it’s not just the little things like installing energy efficient light bulbs and draft excluders that people are now doing, with many considering making big changes to their homes to save money and energy in the long run.

Over a third would now consider a home survey to see if renewable energy could be installed in their property while 40% would pay more to do up their home if it made it more energy-efficient.

Belt-tightening is also affecting what househunters are looking for when buying a house with energy efficiency now high on homeseekers’ wish lists…………………

full article at http://www.easier.com/79612-britain-s-energy-consumption-drops-as-people-try-to-save-money.html

 

U.S. Military Plan: get off oil By 2040

By Bill Moore

In September, the Center for New American Security (CNAS) issued a 36-page study entitled Fueling the Future Force: Preparing the Department of Defense for a Post-Petroleum Era. Now if the title weren’t suggestive enough, the target date of 2040 — 30 years from now — should set off klaxons from Maine to Guam.

Prepared in close consultation with the Office of the Secretary of Defense, as well as the major branches of U.S. Armed Forces and other government agencies, the key authors — Christine Pathemore and John Nagl — conclude that the military has three decades to dramatically reduce its dependence on petroleum, the fuel that powers 77 percent of the America’s fighting machinery.

Why the urgency and why get off of oil? The map at the end of the commentary shows why. It has to do with who has the oil and how fast they are extracting it. The lighter the shades of blue, the shorter the time span until the process of extraction becomes economically unfeasible. Soberingly, CNAS analysts project the United States has just 11 years of reserve-to-production (R/P) capacity. Neighboring Canada, our largest external supplier, 28 years. Meanwhile, Venezuela, Iraq, Iran, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia all have 100 years of R/P capacity………………

full story at http://evworld.com/currents.cfm?jid=153

 

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Midterm elections

Friends and colleagues will know that I try to avoid direct discussion of Peak Oil, but every so often an article comes up that is worth dissemination. Such an article is The Peak Oil Crisis: The Midterm elections and it can be found at http://www.fcnp.com/commentary/national/7671-the-peak-oil-crisis-the-midterms.html .

It ends

“It seems almost certain now that we are actually going to drive ourselves over a great economic cliff with banners of “growth,” “jobs,” “return to the good old days,” and “no taxes” streaming in the wind. It is going to be one hell of a train wreck – unlike anything the American people have ever known.”

This is also directly applicable to the UK as a society; unless we recognise that we must direct, on a balance of probabilities, all our education and research effort to accord with the ‘First Law of Sustainability’ – that ‘in a resource constrained world, goods and services can only grow at the rate that their ‘Resource Intensity’ reduction exceeds that needed to balance the One Planet Equation

1 = P*C*RI’ http://trailblazerbusinessfutures.wordpress.com/the-one-planet-equation

Where is the information below in the UK news?

Alaska’s untapped oil reserves estimate lowered by about 90 percent http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/10/27/alaska.oil.reserves/index.html

(CNN, 27 Oct 2010) — The U.S. Geological Survey says a revised estimate for the amount of conventional, undiscovered oil in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska is a fraction of a previous estimate. The group estimates about 896 million barrels of such oil are in the reserve, about 90 percent less than a 2002 estimate of 10.6 billion barrels. (this represents around 10 days current global consumption, if it can all be brought to market at a useful Energy Return On Energy Invested, EROEI  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeBtdwPpTQM&feature=player_embedded – my comment)

Derek

 

Work, exergy, the economy, money, and wealth

by George Mobus

 

This is something of a tutorial on the relationship between energy and the economy. I have been dismayed by how often people express their lack of knowledge about that relationship. Such expressions come in the form of beliefs that money is what drives the economy. Or the belief that the human desire to accumulate monetary wealth is the motive force for economic growth. Indeed I doubt that most people ever think of physics when they think of the economy.

But the reality is that the economy is very much a physical process that requires energy to continue operating. All of the money in the world will not suffice to maintain the motivation of the wheels of industry unless it can be used to exchange for energy flow. Here is a guide regarding how the real wealth of nations is created and a more concise look at the nature of energy flow needed to do so.

Wealth Production, Movement, and Work

Let’s start with a basic definition of wealth…………….

Full story at http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2010-10-05/work-exergy-economy-money-and-wealth and http://www.theoildrum.com/node/7016

 

“Racing against time:” running on empty?

“Racing Against Time:” Running on Empty?

This post was written by Kathy McMahon on October 3, 2010

“This post is a contribution to Honda’s “Racing Against Time” thought leadership series.  Peak Oil Blues was selected to provide a unique perspective on how we should approach the discussion of oil as a finite energy source.   During the first week of October 2010, five individuals provide their own thoughts on the subject. These independent contributors were not compensated for their participation and as such their views are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Honda.  Details and links to what others are saying about “Racing Against Time” can be found at www.facebook.com/honda .

********

Welcome, Honda Motor visitors.

I’m delighted to participate in this conversation.  I’m a clinical psychologist, got my doctoral degree 22 years ago, and I’ve been reading and answering letters from people who have learned about Peak Oil, started feeling crazy, and needed to talk to somebody who “got it.”  So they write to me.  Feel free to read the letters I’ve received over the past four and a half years.

There is only one reason to consider the terrifying implications of an oil depleted future:  ­­­­­­It gives you more options.  If you could know, with 100% certainty, that you would lose your job in nine months, wouldn’t you want to know?  Of course you would.  You might say “Let’s reconsider taking on more debt” or “Let’s not move.”  You might grab all the overtime you can.  Knowing things ahead of time, even bad things, gives you options, and allows you to make better decisions about how you will live your life today.  That’s the only reason to listen to what I’m about to tell you, and to at least check it out………….

Full article and videos at http://www.peakoilblues.org/blog/?p=2391

videos at http://www.howtoboilafrog.com/ 

 

Pick a side

The War for Renewables Has Begun

By Chris Nelder
Friday, March 26th, 2010

Pick a Side

It’s becoming abundantly clear that if communities want to have a resilient, secure, local renewable supply, they’re going to have to fight for it–and fight hard.

The businesses that control the power sector now are not going to just give up their grip on it, nor are they going to lead the transition to renewables. They’re going to oppose it at every turn with delay tactics, dirty tricks, outright lies, and anything else that will give them an edge. And they have far deeper ties to policymakers, and far deeper pockets with which to wage the war, than anybody in the renewables business. By a wide, wide margin.

What’s good for them is not good for communities, and vice versa. There will be no bridging of that gap. Nor would it be rational to expect investor-owned companies to act against their own self-interests for the benefit of the public.

The residents of Marin County are already being asked to choose a side in the war for the future of energy. Soon the rest of the country will be asked too. Do you have the will to form a stone like MEA? And if you do, do you have the will to throw it?

I say: ¡Viva la Revolución!

I’ll close with a few more lines from the song I quoted above:

Since it cost a lot to win
and even more to lose
You and me bound to spend some time
wondering what to choose

Goes to show you don’t ever know
Watch each card you play
and play it slow
Wait until your deal come around
Don’t you let that deal go down.

– Robert Hunter, “Deal”

Until next time,

full article at http://twurl.nl/486qhh